Qantas Worth AU$17 Billion, Says Macquarie Research
AAP | May 23, 2007
Qantas could be worth up to AU$17 billion - 50 per cent more than the Macquarie Bank-led private equity consortium was willing to pay, according to the bank's sharemarket analysts.
The Airline Partners Australia consortium had offered shareholders AU$5.45 a share, in an AU$11.1 billion bid, which failed earlier in May.
But a briefing note by Macquarie Research Equities said renewed private equity interest could give the Flying Kangaroo a potential value of AU$8.57 a share.
The APA takeover bid collapsed on May 5, when it failed to receive acceptances from 50 per cent of shareholders.
Subsequent appeals to Australia's Takeovers Panel for APA to be able to accept last-minute acceptances failed.
The Macquarie Research looked at 100 Australian firms which are relatively undergeared and could have cash stripped out before being loaded up with debt.
"The aim of this analysis was to gauge what would be the full takeover valuation price a PE (private equity) firm could pay," the report said.
"This is given the current willingness to re-gear balance sheets and the extremely low risk premium being applied by PE investors to equities and debt at present."
The note specifically mentioned Qantas as an attractive takeover target, because of its relatively low debt level combined with strong earnings potential.
Qantas has had three earning upgrades since December 2006.
The Macquarie Research follows similar musings about the Qantas balance sheet by analysts at Merril Lynch earlier.
In the note, authors Neale Goldston-Morris, Tanya Branwhite and David Macri said Qantas was capable of returning AU$2.2 billion in capital to shareholders.
The balance sheet could accommodate such a return without stressing interest cover ratios.
When it met earlier, the Qantas board signalled flagged a review of its capital management policy.