JetBlue Airways may "modestly retard its growth" through retirement of its oldest aircraft or deferrals of new deliveries and could make an announcement to that effect as early as next week, JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker speculated in a report released Monday.A JetBlue spokesperson told ATWOnline the carrier is in a quiet period ahead of its quarterly results release on April 25 and could not comment. Yesterday, it announced it hired a new VP-revenue management, filling a position that had been vacant since last fall (see item below).

JetBlue capacity rose 29% in the first quarter while traffic grew just 24%, pushing load factor down 3.5 points. The airline lost $20.3 million in 2005 and does not expect to be profitable this year. As of mid-March it operated 87 A320s and 10 Embraer 190s and had 96 A320s and 91 190s on order, according to the Airclaims CASE database.

"JetBlue requires an estimated $2 billion in incremental capital over the next two years" to pay for new aircraft, according to Baker, who added that "given the cost and yield supremacy of the Embraer 190," the carrier likely will slow the growth of the A320 fleet. He suggested it will cut planned A320 deliveries next year from 17 to 10.

In the same report, JP Morgan was bullish on US Airways' prospects owing to strong unit revenue growth, which was up 20% in the first quarter compared to the year-ago period, and the fact that the carrier generates a larger share of its revenue in strong Southwest Airlines markets than any other US airline, making it "the chief beneficiary of [Southwest's] full court press for higher fares." Baker expects US Airways' EBIT margin in 2006 to top other US carriers excluding Southwest.