Transport Amount Contradicts Profitability
By Ma Xiaoli, Securities Review | Jun. 06, 2006
In the first quarter, the total aviation transport turnover amount actualized by China is 6.58 billion ton km, the passenger turnover amount is 52.11 billion person km, freight mails turnover amount is 1.93 billion ton km, increases 17.0%, 18.8% & 12.4% respectively comparing to the same period last year, especially the increase of domestic passenger transportation reaches 21.1%. The average passenger load factor reaches 72.4%, improves 3.8%, which shows the strong increasing trend.
However, there's a large amount of loss in the 'financial achievement' of airways, according to the forecast of Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), the total loss of China's airline carriers in the first quarter of this year will exceed 2.5 billion yuan (RMB).
One of worries toward aviation industry, the increase of ASK may be too fast, therefore it will result in the drop of passenger load factor and ticket price level. It's forecasted that after 2007, the risk of excessive ASK will show up gradually.
From the production chain, the airways is in a passive situation of "being pushed from two directions". On one side, its suppliers mostly are monopoly-based sectors, the result is that its expenses can't be dropped, such as aviation oil, plane purchasing, airport charge; On the other hand, it faces a completely competitive sales market. (Translation: CARNOC Tao Mengping)
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