Analysts Estimate American Airlines Will Pay US$40 Million Each for A320neos
By Dominic Gates, The Seattle Times | Jul. 26, 2011
Based on information in American Airlines' regulatory filings, analysts at Wells Fargo say the carrier will pay about an average US$40 million for its A320neos from Airbus in the blockbuster order announced last week.
That's about a 56 percent discount from the list price. And according to market data from aircraft-valuation firm Avitas, it's US$3 million to US$5 million lower than today's real market value after more typical discounts.
While it's little surprise Airbus offered a very good price to capture a previously all-Boeing customer, the deal may also reverberate through upcoming sales campaigns.
Other major U.S. airlines with big orders in the works, including Delta and United, will likely take that pricing as their starting point.
Wells Fargo analysts Sam Pearlstein and Gary Liebowitz issued a research note Tuesday detailing the calculations by which they estimated the A320neos' price, including clarifying information from American Airlines that prompted the analysts to revise the figure upward from an earlier estimate of US$30 million per jet.
American Airlines' quarterly-earnings filing July 20 revealed that with the order, its total purchase commitments on firm orders at the end of this quarter will swell to US$10.3 billion.
Taking the figure cited in the filing for prior purchase commitments, and backing out a few minor adjustments expected between now and the end of September, the difference due to last week's giant order is US$7 billion.
American told Pearlstein and Liebowitz that this figure covers the purchase of 130 Airbus A320neos. It also includes pre-delivery payments on 230 classic A320s and 737s to be leased from Airbus and Boeing.
The figure doesn't include the purchase from Boeing of 100 re-engined 737s. That part of the order is not firm and awaits Boeing board approval of the re-engine decision.
Assuming that the airline must pay one-fifth of the purchase price before delivery, which is typical, the average cost for 130 planes plus one-fifth of the cost of 230 more works out to US$40 million.
An alternative assumption that the airline must pay 30 percent before delivery results in an even lower price, US$35 million.