Fresh Warning for The Qantas Hardliners
By Steve Creedy, The Australian | Apr. 09, 2007
Dissident shareholders holding up the Qantas takeover offer face being locked into a minority position just as aviation industry revenue growth slows, after private equity bidders agreed on new financing to take control of the airline without full ownership.
Airline Partners Australia is reported to have reached a new debt financing package with its bankers which would breathe new life into its AU$11 billion offer for Qantas. A report at the weekend said the banks agreed to refinance the deal so the consortium could take control of Qantas without owning 100 per cent.
The banks, including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Citigroup, reportedly worked out a new package with APA, after agreeing to drop the minimum acceptance condition from 90 per cent to 80 per cent.
The APA consortium, which is offering AU$5.45 a share for Qantas, already owns 31 per cent of the airline.
The new deal was expected to resurrect the takeover bid, which stalled when two fund managers, including Andrew Sisson of Balanced Equity Management, did not want to accept the offer.
On April 8, members of the consortium and the banks could not be reached for confirmation of the report.
But it came as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned that airline revenue growth would halve from recent rates of 10 per cent over the next two years.
While IATA expects improved performance among international carriers this year, it warns that airlines are moving into a period of slower revenue growth.
"Revenues are expected to grow by around half the average 10 per cent annual expansion enjoyed since 2004," IATA said in its industry financial forecast, released on April 8.
The report noted that traffic growth slowed last year but the effect on revenue growth was offset by a significant improvement in yields.
"However, much of that rise was due to fuel surcharges," it said.
"Higher yields reflected the rise in fuel costs rather than any emergence of significant pricing power. The perspective of the past decade shows that there has been little change in the downward trend in real yields. We anticipate that trend resuming this year."
IATA has raised its forecast for industry-wide net profits from $US2.5 billion to $US3.8 billion, despite a slowdown in the US economy and oil prices that are back above $US60 a barrel.
In the Asia-Pacific region, it expects overall net profits to dip this year from $US1.9 billion to $US1.7 billion before recovering to $US2.3 billion next year.
Global net profits could rise to $US7.6 billion in 2008 and operating margins to 4 per cent.
The report warned the industry remained vulnerable to the kinds of shocks that hit demand and costs over the past six years.
While the return on capital would be considerably higher than the low point of 2001, it would remain below levels achieved in the late 1990s and "several percentage points away from matching the average 7-8 per cent cost of capital".
"Not only are returns low, but balance sheets remain fragile," it said.
Cost pressures were also starting to rise, the report warned.