Stable-to-declining oil prices, a big expected rebound in global trade, and a very healthy 4.7% jump in global passenger capacity next year are expected to push airlines around the world to profits of around US$29.3 billion in 2020, up 13% from the US$25.9 billion they're expected to rake in this year.

But North American carriers, whose planned capacity growth this year was thrown off track by the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft flown by Southwest, American and United airlines, should see a slight drop in total profits in 2020 despite - and perhaps partially because of - a whopping 5.1% increase in total capacity. The International Air Transport Association, the global lobby group for carriers that handle more than 85% of all air traffic worldwide, now projects North American carriers will earn about US$16.5 billion next year, down from an estimated US$16.9 billion this year.

That US$16.5 billion projected profit in 2020 would mean that North American airlines next year would see a very healthy US$16 in profit from every one of their passengers. That's almost twice the amount of profit the group earned from each passenger back in 2013. And it shows how successful the group has been since emerging from their long period of huge losses, bankruptcies and consolidations period that ended around 2013.

Still, next year's projected North American carriers' profits total still would be a slight drop in the profit-per-passenger they'll record this year. And that signals that carriers won't have much ability to push the average fare price up next year. Behind that loss of pricing power will be the eventual return to service of the MAX airplanes plus the addition of even more new planes to the North American fleet. In addition to the 34, 24 and 14 MAX planes that Southwest, American and United, respectively, will get back in service at some still-undetermined point in 2020, all three will be adding even more new MAX planes that have been built for them during the grounding period but which Boeing could not deliver. American and United also will be taking on additional widebody jets that seat more passengers than the older widebodies they'll be replacing.

"Aviation is an amazing industry," said IATA Director General Alexandre de Juniac. "We support US$2.7 trillion of economic activity, equivalent to 3.6% of global GDP. Yet in spite of all the wealth we have created for the world, profitability always has been a challenge. It is really only since the end of the Global Financial Crisis that the airline industry has achieve a stable stream of profits."

de Juniac added that while 2020 will be another profitable year for the industry globally, the majority of airlines around the world still struggle to earn any profits at all, let along enough to produce a return on investment large enough to satisfy their investors. "The contribution of the top 30 (airlines in the world) is absolutely disproportionate."

IATA projects that continued growth in "ancillary" revenues from various fees imposed on and extra services sold to travelers will offset, partially, the slightly negative impact of growing capacity faster than demand grows.

Still, has historically been the case, IATA forecasts that North American carriers will be the most profitable in the world. Rising costs, particularly labor costs, plus intense low fare competition for passengers flying within Europe, plus the United Kingdom's imminent exit from the European Union are expected to keep European carriers' 2020 profit margins (3.6% projected) at nearly half that of North American carriers (6% projected).

IATA also projects a modest recovery among Asian airlines in 2020 based on its expectation that trade battles, principally between the United States and China - ease. But Middle Eastern carriers are forecast to lose money again, as a group, in 2020, though those losses should be half as large as they're going to be this year (US$1.5 billion combined). Restructuring and somewhat improved economies in 2020 should allow Latin American carriers to product modest profits in 2020 vs. an estimated US$400 million loss this year. African carriers once again are expected to lose money in 2020 because of chronically weak passenger demand.