Trends of COVID-19 Outbreak and Flight Completion in China

Jan 24 China waived fees for all transport ticket cancellations nationwide

Jan 25 30 Chinese provincial-level regions activated top-level response to Covid-19

Jan 31 WHO declared a PHEIC for the outbreak of COVID-19 on Jan 31

Feb 4 CAAC required domestic airlines to maintain international flight operations

Feb 11 CAAC announced that students can enjoy full refunds or free-of-charge flight changes before Mar 31

Feb 12 CAAC said that airlines don't need to return refund fees to passengers who refunded tickets before free-refund policy

Mar 4 Notice by the MoF and CAAC on financial support policy for civil air transport enterprises during the Prevention and Control Period of Covid-19

Mar 9 CAAC Issues 16 Industry Support Policies in Response to Covid-19

Mar 21 CAAC called for a safe and orderly operation to ensure inbound international flights scheduled to land at PEK are redirected to designated entry airports in nearby cities

Correlation between flight completion and epidemic in hard-hit countries

U.S.

Under covid-19, the current number of operated flights in the United States is about 70% of the peak value (28,273 on March 12) since February 1.

UK

Affected by the epidemic, the current number of operated flights in the UK is about 34% of the peak value (5,571 on February 21) since February 1.

Italy

Hard-hit by covid-19, the current number of operated flights in Italy is ONLY 5% of the peak value (3,386 on February 21) since February 1.

Spain

Affected by the epidemic, the current number of operated flights in Spain is ONLY 14% of the peak value (4,210 on March 8) since February 1.

South Korea

Under covid-19, the current number of operated flights in South Korea is ONLY 21% of the peak value (1,874 on February 2) since February 1.

Japan

Due to the epidemic, the current number of operated flights in Japan is about 70% of the peak value (4,145 on February 2) since February 1.

CARDI Analysis

By comparing the daily number of seats on flights operated by Chinese and other hard-hit countries' airlines in 2019 and 2020 provided by Airsavvi , we make the CARDI (Real-time Dynamic Indicators of Novel Coronavirus Affecting Airline Operations) to quantitatively analyze the impact of the epidemic and observe real-time changes of the curve.

Mainland China

With the effective execution of anti-epidemic measures, the national outbreak is gradually being controlled, and operated flights have started to rise steadily after experiencing a sustained fall.

U.S.

As the US travel ban went into force, transatlantic route and transpacific routs have witnessed rapid seat declines. It's predicted that other countries will also experience more serious reduction in future flight operations.

*Transatlantic route: round trip flight between UK/Italy/Spain/Germany and the US Transpacific route: round trip flight between Mainland China/Hong Kong SAR/Japan/South Korea/Australia and the US

Europe

Europe has witnessed rapid seat declines due to the severe impact of the epidemic and the unprecedented lockdown of the country.

North-East Asia

South Korea and Japan

Other Countries/Regions